Oil moves first — within hours of a strike, before a single drop of supply is disrupted. That's traders pricing in fear. Gas follows in days. Gold rising means professional money is scared. Food and energy inflation are the lagged consequence — they take weeks to catch up, but they always do. The arrows show change vs. the prior data period. The caution signal (▲ red) means prices are rising.

A missile doesn't hit your grocery store the same week it hits a radar installation. The economic damage travels in stages — each with its own delay. Lit dots = already happened. The timeline below shows where the shockwave from Operation Epic Fury currently sits, based on the February 28, 2026 start date. The later stages are coming. They always do.

Every node below is live data. Click any pair to load their relationship into the chart. Then drag the lag slider — try Oil → Gas with +4 weeks. Watch the correlation score climb toward 1.0. That number is the mechanical proof: oil prices become gas prices, gas prices become grocery prices. The delay between them is the shockwave travelling through the economy.

Wars cause inflation. Inflation costs ordinary people real money. This calculator uses our live data to estimate how much of your recent cost increases — on fuel, food, and utilities — is attributable to Operation Epic Fury. We apply a 35% attribution factor: roughly the share of current energy and food inflation that economists attribute to Middle East conflict premiums, based on IMF methodology. It is an estimate, not an invoice. The full war tax is larger than any calculator can show.

The Tab page tracks what this war costs U.S. taxpayers. This page tracks what it costs American wallets through inflation. This section documents what it costs people in Iran. Because the picture is incomplete without it. All three costs are real. All three are happening right now. Figures are open-source estimates from UN agencies, IMF, and IISS. Independent verification inside Iran is limited. We update as better data becomes available.